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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
September 11, 2011
INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL
[email protected], OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF THE PRESS RELEASE
Turner in position for huge upset in NY-9 Raleigh, N.C. – Republican Bob Turner is poised to pull a huge upset in the race to replace Anthony Weiner as the Congressman from New York's 9th Congressional District. He leads Democrat David Weprin 47-41 with Socialist Workers candidate Christopher Hoeppner at 4% and 7% of voters remaining undecided. Turner's winning in a heavily Democratic district for two reasons: a huge lead with independents and a large amount of crossover support. He's ahead by 32 points at 58-26 with voters unaffiliated with either major party. And he's winning 29% of the Democratic vote, holding Weprin under 60% with voters of his own party, while losing just 10% of Republican partisans. If Turner wins on Tuesday it will be largely due to the incredible unpopularity of Barack Obama dragging his party down in the district. Obama won 55% there in 2008 but now has a staggeringly bad 31% approval rating, with 56% of voters disapproving of him. It's a given that Republicans don't like him but more shocking are his 16% approval rating with independents and the fact that he's below 50% even with Democrats at 46% approving and 38% disapproving. Beyond Obama's weakness, Turner has actually proven to be a pretty strong candidate. 45% of voters rate him favorably to 30% with a negative opinion. Independents give him good marks by a 56/17 spread and he has better than normal numbers across party lines with 29% of Democrats expressing a positive view of him to just 43% with an unfavorable one. Weprin has been much maligned as a candidate but he actually has positive favorability numbers too with 39% of voters rating him positively and 36% negatively. “If Republicans win this race on Tuesday it’s real world evidence of how unpopular Barack Obama is right now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Approval polls are one thing but for the GOP to win in a heavily Democratic district like this would send a strong message about how unhappy voters are.” PPP surveyed 664 likely New York 9th Congressional District voters from from September 8th to 11th and the margin of error for the poll is +/-3.8. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates. Public Policy Polling 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
Phone: 888 621-6988 Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Email:
[email protected]
New York 9th Congressional District Survey Results Q1
The candidates in the special election for Congress are Republican Bob Turner, Democrat David Weprin, and Socialist Workers Party candidate Christopher Hoeppner. If the election was today, who would you vote for?
Q7
Barack Obama................................................ 44% Rick Perry ....................................................... 43%
Bob Turner ...................................................... 47% David Weprin .................................................. 41% Christopher Hoeppner..................................... 4%
Undecided....................................................... 13%
Q8
Undecided....................................................... 7%
Q2
MItt Romney ................................................... 46%
Favorable........................................................ 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 24%
Q3
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of David Weprin? Favorable........................................................ 39% Unfavorable .................................................... 36% Not sure .......................................................... 24%
Q4
Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance? Approve .......................................................... 31% Disapprove...................................................... 56% Not sure .......................................................... 13%
Q5
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rick Perry? Favorable........................................................ 26% Unfavorable .................................................... 35% Not sure .......................................................... 39%
Q6
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?
If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for? Barack Obama................................................ 42%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bob Turner? Unfavorable .................................................... 30%
If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick Perry, who would you vote for?
Undecided....................................................... 12%
Q9
Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s leadership on Israel? Approve .......................................................... 30% Disapprove...................................................... 54% Not sure .......................................................... 16%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Anthony Weiner? Favorable........................................................ 29% Unfavorable .................................................... 53% Not sure .......................................................... 18%
Q11 How important was the issue of Israel in deciding who to vote for Congress: very important, somewhat important, or not all that important? Very important................................................. 37% Somewhat important ....................................... 32% Not all that important....................................... 29% Not sure .......................................................... 3%
Favorable........................................................ 33% Unfavorable .................................................... 33% Not sure .......................................................... 34%
September 8-11, 2011 Survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Q12 Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?
Q18 Do you approve or disapprove of Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s job performance?
Legal ............................................................... 41%
Approve .......................................................... 44%
Illegal .............................................................. 45%
Disapprove...................................................... 43%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%
Q13 How important was the issue of same-sex marriage in deciding who to vote for Congress: very important, somewhat important, or not all that important? Very important................................................. 29% Somewhat important ....................................... 26% Not all that important....................................... 44% Not sure .......................................................... 1%
Q14 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Congressional Republicans are doing? Approve .......................................................... 31% Disapprove...................................................... 50% Not sure .......................................................... 19%
Q15 Do you have more faith in Barack Obama or Congressional Republicans to lead the country in the right direction? Barack Obama................................................ 42% Congressional Republicans ............................ 44% Not sure .......................................................... 14%
Q16 Would you rather that Democrats or Republicans had control of the US House?
Q19 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s job performance? Approve .......................................................... 35% Disapprove...................................................... 28% Not sure .......................................................... 37%
Q20 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Chuck Schumer’s job performance? Approve .......................................................... 51% Disapprove...................................................... 35% Not sure .......................................................... 14%
Q21 Who did you vote for President in 2008? John McCain................................................... 34% Barack Obama................................................ 55% Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 10%
Q22 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative? Very liberal ...................................................... 14% Somewhat liberal ............................................ 21% Moderate......................................................... 30%
Democrats ...................................................... 44%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 22%
Republicans .................................................... 45%
Very conservative ........................................... 13%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%
Q17 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Andrew Cuomo’s job performance? Approve .......................................................... 59%
Q23 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Woman ........................................................... 53% Man................................................................. 47%
Disapprove...................................................... 16% Not sure .......................................................... 25%
September 8-11, 2011 Survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Q24 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or a member of another party, press 3. Democrat ........................................................ 59% Republican...................................................... 25% Independent/Other .......................................... 15%
Q25 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. If Asian, press 3. If other, press 4. Hispanic .......................................................... 18%
Q27 Are you Jewish, Catholic, some other type of Christian, another religion, or no religion at all? Jewish............................................................. 36% Catholic........................................................... 31% Some other type of Christian .......................... 10% Another religion............................................... 9% No religion at all .............................................. 8% Don't care to say ............................................. 5%
White .............................................................. 65% Asian............................................................... 9% Other............................................................... 8%
Q26 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4. 18 to 29........................................................... 14% 30 to 45........................................................... 26% 46 to 65........................................................... 37% Older than 65 .................................................. 23%
September 8-11, 2011 Survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
2008 Vote
2008 Vote John Barack Som eone else/Don't Base McCain Obam a rem em ber
John Barack Som eone else/Don't Base McCain Obam a rem em ber Turner/Weprin/Hoeppner
Turner Favorability 75%
25%
53%
Unfavorable 30%
7%
49%
13%
Not sure 24%
18%
27%
34%
Favorable 45%
Bob Turner 47%
85%
23%
55%
David Weprin 41%
8%
65%
19%
Christopher Hoeppner
4%
2%
4%
13%
Undecided
7%
5%
8%
13%
2008 Vote
2008 Vote
John Barack Som eone else/Don't Base McCain Obam a rem em ber Weprin Favorability
John Barack Som eone else/Don't Base McCain Obam a rem em ber Obam a Approval
Favorable 39%
14%
59%
24%
Approve 31%
6%
52%
6%
Unfavorable 36%
60%
19%
47%
Disapprove 56%
90%
32%
63%
Not sure 24%
26%
22%
29%
Not sure 13%
3%
16%
31%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
2008 Vote
2008 Vote
John Barack Som eone else/Don't Base McCain Obam a rem em ber Perry Favorability
John Barack Som eone else/Don't Base McCain Obam a rem em ber Rom ney Favorability
Favorable 26%
47%
11%
36%
Favorable 33%
55%
19%
24%
Unfavorable 35%
16%
Not sure 39%
36%
52%
8%
Unfavorable 33%
13%
48%
29%
37%
56%
Not sure 34%
31%
33%
47%
2008 Vote
2008 Vote
John Barack Som eone else/Don't Base McCain Obam a rem em ber Obam a/Perry
John Barack Som eone else/Don't Base McCain Obam a rem em ber Obam a/Rom ney
Barack Obam a 44%
9%
73%
15%
Barack Obam a 42%
5%
70%
17%
Rick Perry 43%
77%
19%
46%
MItt Rom ney 46%
86%
19%
51%
Undecided 13%
13%
8%
39%
Undecided 12%
9%
11%
32%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
2008 Vote
2008 Vote John Barack Som eone else/Don't Base McCain Obam a rem em ber
John Barack Som eone else/Don't Base McCain Obam a rem em ber Obam a Israel Approval
Weiner Favorability
Approve 30%
10%
47%
15%
Disapprove 54%
83%
34%
56%
Not sure 16%
7%
19%
29%
Favorable 29%
11%
44%
15%
Unfavorable 53%
76%
36%
61%
Not sure 18%
13%
20%
24%
2008 Vote
2008 Vote
John Barack Som eone else/Don't Base McCain Obam a rem em ber Im portance of Israel on Vote
John Barack Som eone else/Don't Base McCain Obam a rem em ber Sam e-Sex Legal/Illegal
Very im portant 37%
47%
29%
41%
Legal 41%
19%
57%
28%
Som ew hat 32% im portant
36%
29%
30%
Illegal 45%
68%
28%
53%
Not sure 14%
13%
14%
18%
Not all that im portant 29%
15%
38%
29%
2%
4%
-
Not sure
3%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
2008 Vote
2008 Vote
John Barack Som eone else/Don't rem em ber Base McCain Obam a Im portance of Sam eSex Marriage on Vote
Cong. GOP Approval
Very im portant 29%
34%
25%
26%
Som ew hat 26% im portant
22%
30%
25%
Not all that im portant 44%
43%
44%
49%
1%
2%
-
Not sure
John Barack Som eone else/Don't rem em ber Base McCain Obam a
1%
Approve 31%
56%
11%
43%
Disapprove 50%
20%
75%
30%
Not sure 19%
24%
14%
27%
2008 Vote
2008 Vote
John Barack Som eone else/Don't Base McCain Obam a rem em ber More Faith in Obam a or Cong. GOP?
John Barack Som eone else/Don't Base McCain Obam a rem em ber Want Dem s or GOP to Control House?
Barack Obam a 42%
7%
72%
8%
Dem ocrats 44%
11%
72%
16%
Congressional 44% Republicans
83%
17%
48%
Republicans 45%
81%
18%
59%
Not sure 11%
8%
10%
25%
Not sure 14%
9%
11%
44%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
2008 Vote
2008 Vote
John Barack Som eone else/Don't Base McCain Obam a rem em ber Cuom o Approval
John Barack Som eone else/Don't Base McCain Obam a rem em ber Bloom berg Approval
Approve 59%
42%
72%
47%
Approve 44%
36%
52%
31%
Disapprove 16% Not sure 25%
28%
9%
14%
Disapprove 43%
52%
36%
47%
30%
19%
38%
Not sure 13%
12%
13%
22%
2008 Vote
2008 Vote
John Barack Som eone else/Don't Base McCain Obam a rem em ber Gillibrand Approval
John Barack Som eone else/Don't Base McCain Obam a rem em ber Schum er Approval
Approve 35%
15%
50%
28%
Approve 51%
21%
75%
31%
Disapprove 28%
46%
15%
29%
Disapprove 35%
63%
15%
44%
Not sure 37%
39%
34%
43%
Not sure 14%
16%
10%
25%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Ideology
Ideology
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal Turner/Weprin/Hoeppner
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal Turner Favorability
Bob Turner 47%
23%
24%
45%
69%
80%
David Weprin 41%
54%
67%
47%
17%
12%
Christopher Hoeppner
4%
12%
3%
1%
6%
1%
Undecided
7%
11%
6%
6%
8%
7%
Favorable 45%
28%
22%
41%
64%
Unfavorable 30%
49%
51%
30%
14%
7%
Not sure 24%
23%
27%
29%
22%
17%
Ideology
77%
Ideology
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal Weprin Favorability
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal Obam a Approval
Favorable 39%
58%
57%
44%
19%
14%
Approve 31%
59%
51%
26%
12%
13%
Unfavorable 36%
20%
25%
30%
47%
70%
Disapprove 56%
29%
35%
58%
76%
79%
Not sure 24%
23%
18%
26%
33%
17%
Not sure 13%
13%
14%
16%
11%
9%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Ideology
Ideology
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal Perry Favorability
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal Rom ney Favorability
Favorable 26%
24%
10%
14%
39%
62%
Favorable 33%
21%
14%
36%
42%
51%
Unfavorable 35%
48%
56%
38%
16%
12%
Unfavorable 33%
50%
58%
26%
18%
18%
Not sure 39%
27%
34%
48%
44%
26%
Not sure 34%
29%
28%
38%
39%
31%
Ideology
Ideology
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal Obam a/Perry
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal Obam a/Rom ney
Barack Obam a 44%
72%
72%
46%
17%
12%
Barack Obam a 42%
72%
73%
39%
15%
11%
Rick Perry 43%
17%
23%
34%
65%
81%
MItt Rom ney 46%
18%
19%
42%
69%
84%
Undecided 13%
11%
4%
20%
18%
7%
Undecided 12%
9%
7%
18%
15%
5%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Ideology
Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Obam a Israel Approval
Weiner Favorability
Approve 30%
58%
51%
27%
12%
8%
Disapprove 54%
25%
30%
56%
74%
83%
Not sure 16%
18%
19%
16%
14%
9%
Favorable 29%
57%
47%
28%
12%
7%
Unfavorable 53%
16%
36%
49%
75%
83%
Not sure 18%
27%
16%
23%
12%
10%
Ideology
Ideology
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Im portance of Israel on Vote
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Sam e-Sex Legal/Illegal
Very im portant 37%
34%
32%
37%
34%
52%
Legal 41%
73%
58%
41%
22%
11%
Som ew hat 32% im portant
23%
32%
31%
35%
35%
Illegal 45%
14%
31%
43%
58%
77%
Not sure 14%
12%
11%
15%
20%
11%
Not all that im portant 29%
39%
34%
29%
28%
12%
4%
2%
3%
3%
-
Not sure
3%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Ideology
Ideology
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal Im portance of Sam eSex Marriage on Vote
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal Cong. GOP Approval
Very im portant 29%
28%
26%
23%
24%
51%
Som ew hat 26% im portant
29%
33%
25%
27%
16%
Not all that im portant 44%
42%
37%
52%
47%
32%
1%
3%
0%
1%
-
Not sure
1%
Approve 31%
22%
11%
19%
46%
68%
Disapprove 50%
67%
75%
57%
29%
18%
Not sure 19%
11%
13%
25%
25%
14%
Ideology
Ideology
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative More Faith in Obam a or Cong. GOP?
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal Want Dem s or GOP to Control House?
Barack Obam a 42%
75%
72%
44%
15%
8%
Dem ocrats 44%
76%
73%
49%
18%
8%
Congressional 44% Republicans
18%
22%
35%
66%
85%
Republicans 45%
15%
19%
37%
69%
86%
Not sure 11%
9%
8%
14%
13%
6%
Not sure 14%
8%
6%
21%
19%
7%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Ideology
Ideology
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Cuom o Approval
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Bloom berg Approval
Approve 59%
72%
75%
67%
46%
28%
Approve 44%
52%
55%
47%
37%
25%
Disapprove 16%
4%
10%
12%
17%
43%
Disapprove 43%
36%
35%
39%
41%
70%
Not sure 25%
24%
15%
21%
37%
29%
Not sure 13%
12%
10%
14%
22%
5%
Ideology
Ideology
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Gillibrand Approval
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Schum er Approval
Approve 35%
57%
58%
37%
20%
5%
Approve 51%
69%
81%
63%
24%
12%
Disapprove 28%
10%
17%
24%
34%
56%
Disapprove 35%
12%
11%
28%
56%
71%
Not sure 37%
33%
24%
39%
46%
39%
Not sure 14%
20%
8%
10%
21%
17%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Gender Base Wom an
Gender
Man
Turner/Weprin/Hoeppner
Base Wom an
Man
Turner Favorability
Bob Turner 47%
45%
50%
David Weprin 41%
42%
40%
Christopher Hoeppner
4%
4%
4%
Undecided
7%
9%
5%
Favorable 45%
46%
44%
Unfavorable 30%
30%
31%
Not sure 24%
24%
25%
Gender Base Wom an
Gender Man
Weprin Favorability
Base Wom an
Man
Obam a Approval
Favorable 39%
42%
36%
Approve 31%
35%
27%
Unfavorable 36%
31%
42%
Disapprove 56%
49%
63%
Not sure 24%
27%
22%
Not sure 13%
16%
10%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Gender Base Wom an
Gender Man
Perry Favorability
Base Wom an
Man
Rom ney Favorability
Favorable 26%
24%
30%
Favorable 33%
33%
32%
Unfavorable 35%
32%
38%
Unfavorable 33%
31%
36%
Not sure 39%
44%
32%
Not sure 34%
36%
32%
Gender Base Wom an
Gender Man
Obam a/Perry
Base Wom an
Man
Obam a/Rom ney
Barack Obam a 44%
47%
41%
Barack Obam a 42%
44%
39%
Rick Perry 43%
39%
47%
MItt Rom ney 46%
42%
50%
Undecided 13%
14%
12%
Undecided 12%
14%
11%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Gender Base Wom an
Gender Man
Obam a Israel Approval
Base Wom an
Man
Weiner Favorability
Approve 30%
31%
29%
Disapprove 54%
50%
59%
Not sure 16%
19%
12%
Favorable 29%
27%
31%
Unfavorable 53%
51%
54%
Not sure 18%
21%
14%
Gender
Gender Base Wom an
Base Wom an
Man
Man
Sam e-Sex Legal/Illegal
Im portance of Israel on Vote Very im portant 37%
38%
36%
Legal 41%
45%
36%
Som ew hat 32% im portant
31%
32%
Illegal 45%
39%
51%
Not sure 14%
16%
13%
Not all that im portant 29%
28%
30%
4%
2%
Not sure
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3%
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Gender Base Wom an
Gender Man
Im portance of Sam eSex Marriage on Vote
Base Wom an
Man
Cong. GOP Approval
Very im portant 29%
27%
30%
Som ew hat 26% im portant
27%
26%
Not all that im portant 44%
45%
42%
1%
2%
Not sure
1%
Approve 31%
26%
36%
Disapprove 50%
49%
52%
Not sure 19%
25%
13%
Gender
Gender Base Wom an
Base Wom an
Man
Man
Want Dem s or GOP to Control House?
More Faith in Obam a or Cong. GOP? Barack Obam a 42%
43%
40%
Dem ocrats 44%
47%
42%
Congressional 44% Republicans
42%
47%
Republicans 45%
40%
50%
Not sure 11%
13%
8%
Not sure 14%
15%
12%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Gender Base Wom an
Gender Man
Cuom o Approval
Base Wom an
Man
Bloom berg Approval
Approve 59%
59%
58%
Approve 44%
50%
38%
Disapprove 16%
11%
21%
Disapprove 43%
37%
49%
Not sure 25%
29%
20%
Not sure 13%
13%
14%
Gender Base Wom an
Gender Man
Gillibrand Approval
Base Wom an
Man
Schum er Approval
Approve 35%
39%
32%
Approve 51%
55%
48%
Disapprove 28%
21%
35%
Disapprove 35%
27%
43%
Not sure 37%
40%
33%
Not sure 14%
18%
10%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Party
Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Turner/Weprin/Hoeppner
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Turner Favorability
Bob Turner 47%
29%
83%
58%
David Weprin 41%
58%
10%
26%
Christopher Hoeppner
4%
4%
4%
7%
Undecided
7%
9%
2%
10%
Favorable 45%
29%
77%
56%
Unfavorable 30%
43%
10%
17%
Not sure 24%
29%
13%
27%
Party
Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Weprin Favorability
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Obam a Approval
Favorable 39%
56%
9%
26%
Approve 31%
46%
6%
16%
Unfavorable 36%
25%
60%
40%
Disapprove 56%
38%
90%
68%
Not sure 24%
19%
30%
34%
Not sure 13%
17%
4%
16%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Party
Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Perry Favorability
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Rom ney Favorability
Favorable 26%
14%
50%
34%
Favorable 33%
23%
53%
34%
Unfavorable 35%
47%
17%
18%
Unfavorable 33%
43%
19%
23%
Not sure 39%
39%
33%
48%
Not sure 34%
34%
28%
43%
Party
Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Obam a/Perry
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Obam a/Rom ney
Barack Obam a 44%
65%
9%
26%
Barack Obam a 42%
62%
6%
28%
Rick Perry 43%
22%
79%
56%
MItt Rom ney 46%
26%
83%
56%
Undecided 13%
13%
12%
18%
Undecided 12%
12%
11%
16%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Party
Party Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Obam a Israel Approval
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Weiner Favorability
Approve 30%
42%
13%
13%
Disapprove 54%
40%
78%
66%
Not sure 16%
18%
8%
21%
Favorable 29%
41%
8%
24%
Unfavorable 53%
39%
76%
63%
Not sure 18%
20%
16%
14%
Party
Party Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Sam e-Sex Legal/Illegal
Im portance of Israel on Vote Very im portant 37%
31%
50%
36%
Legal 41%
52%
23%
28%
Som ew hat 32% im portant
34%
31%
24%
Illegal 45%
35%
65%
47%
Not sure 14%
13%
12%
25%
Not all that im portant 29%
32%
17%
38%
3%
2%
2%
Not sure
3%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Party
Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Im portance of Sam eSex Marriage on Vote
Cong. GOP Approval
Very im portant 29%
27%
33%
25%
Som ew hat 26% im portant
29%
25%
21%
Not all that im portant 44%
42%
41%
54%
1%
1%
-
Not sure
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
1%
Approve 31%
18%
55%
34%
Disapprove 50%
67%
24%
33%
Not sure 19%
15%
21%
33%
Party
Party Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Want Dem s or GOP to Control House?
More Faith in Obam a or Cong. GOP? Barack Obam a 42%
63%
7%
23%
Dem ocrats 44%
68%
9%
18%
Congressional 44% Republicans
22%
82%
61%
Republicans 45%
23%
83%
59%
Not sure 11%
9%
8%
23%
Not sure 14%
14%
12%
16%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Party
Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Cuom o Approval
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Bloom berg Approval
Approve 59%
69%
44%
45%
Approve 44%
52%
28%
41%
Disapprove 16%
10%
28%
19%
Disapprove 43%
36%
60%
37%
Not sure 25%
21%
28%
36%
Not sure 13%
12%
12%
21%
Party
Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Gillibrand Approval
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Schum er Approval
Approve 35%
49%
15%
18%
Approve 51%
72%
20%
25%
Disapprove 28%
17%
46%
36%
Disapprove 35%
18%
63%
50%
Not sure 37%
33%
39%
46%
Not sure 14%
9%
18%
25%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Race
Race
Base Hispanic White Asian Other Turner/Weprin/Hoeppner
Base Hispanic White Asian Other Turner Favorability
Bob Turner 47%
37%
54%
32%
33%
David Weprin 41%
37%
39%
49%
55%
Christopher Hoeppner
4%
16%
1%
1%
5%
Undecided
7%
10%
5%
18%
7%
Favorable 45%
39%
51%
32%
25%
Unfavorable 30%
30%
30%
29%
39%
Not sure 24%
31%
19%
39%
37%
Race
Race
Base Hispanic White Asian Other Weprin Favorability
Base Hispanic White Asian Other Obam a Approval
Favorable 39%
47%
36%
37%
57%
Approve 31%
44%
25%
38%
44%
Unfavorable 36%
33%
39%
31%
21%
Disapprove 56%
42%
62%
55%
34%
Not sure 24%
20%
25%
33%
21%
Not sure 13%
14%
13%
7%
22%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Race
Race
Base Hispanic White Asian Other Perry Favorability
Base Hispanic White Asian Other Rom ney Favorability
Favorable 26%
32%
28%
21%
10%
Favorable 33%
28%
36%
32%
9%
Unfavorable 35%
26%
39%
22%
31%
Unfavorable 33%
35%
33%
21%
45%
Not sure 39%
42%
34%
57%
59%
Not sure 34%
36%
31%
47%
47%
Race
Race
Base Hispanic White Asian Other Obam a/Perry
Base Hispanic White Asian Other Obam a/Rom ney
Barack Obam a 44%
51%
41%
39%
66%
Barack Obam a 42%
49%
38%
39%
63%
Rick Perry 43%
36%
46%
40%
29%
MItt Rom ney 46%
38%
51%
39%
23%
Undecided 13%
14%
13%
21%
5%
Undecided 12%
13%
11%
22%
13%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Race
Race
Base Hispanic White Asian Other Obam a Israel Approval
Base Hispanic White Asian Other Weiner Favorability
Approve 30%
45%
25%
38%
35%
Disapprove 54%
41%
62%
39%
26%
Not sure 16%
13%
13%
23%
38%
Favorable 29%
23%
31%
21%
37%
Unfavorable 53%
51%
57%
42%
28%
Not sure 18%
26%
12%
37%
35%
Race
Race
Base Hispanic White Asian Other
Base Hispanic White Asian Other Sam e-Sex Legal/Illegal
Im portance of Israel on Vote Very im portant 37%
42%
38%
21%
30%
Legal 41%
42%
41%
33%
38%
Som ew hat 32% im portant
28%
33%
31%
26%
Illegal 45%
45%
45%
51%
36%
Not sure 14%
12%
14%
16%
26%
Not all that im portant 29%
28%
27%
46%
34%
2%
2%
2%
10%
Not sure
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3%
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Race
Race
Base Hispanic White Asian Other Im portance of Sam eSex Marriage on Vote
Base Hispanic White Asian Other Cong. GOP Approval
Very im portant 29%
38%
27%
25%
26%
Som ew hat 26% im portant
25%
28%
21%
18%
Not all that im portant 44%
37%
44%
51%
52%
1%
1%
2%
5%
Not sure
1%
Approve 31%
32%
32%
23%
19%
Disapprove 50%
52%
48%
50%
68%
Not sure 19%
17%
20%
27%
13%
Race
Race
Base Hispanic White Asian Other
Base Hispanic White Asian Other Want Dem s or GOP to Control House?
More Faith in Obam a or Cong. GOP? Barack Obam a 42%
50%
39%
41%
61%
Dem ocrats 44%
51%
43%
34%
60%
Congressional 44% Republicans
42%
47%
38%
23%
Republicans 45%
42%
48%
43%
19%
Not sure 11%
7%
9%
23%
21%
Not sure 14%
8%
14%
21%
15%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Race
Race
Base Hispanic White Asian Other Cuom o Approval
Base Hispanic White Asian Other Bloom berg Approval
Approve 59%
61%
60%
52%
56%
Approve 44%
40%
44%
49%
45%
Disapprove 16%
21%
15%
21%
15%
Disapprove 43%
52%
42%
39%
27%
Not sure 25%
18%
26%
27%
29%
Not sure 13%
9%
13%
12%
28%
Race
Race
Base Hispanic White Asian Other Gillibrand Approval
Base Hispanic White Asian Other Schum er Approval
Approve 35%
27%
37%
30%
45%
Approve 51%
46%
50%
56%
70%
Disapprove 28%
34%
27%
29%
13%
Disapprove 35%
30%
37%
30%
26%
Not sure 37%
38%
36%
41%
42%
Not sure 14%
24%
12%
15%
4%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Age
Age Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Turner/Weprin/Hoeppner
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Turner Favorability
Bob Turner 47%
41%
48%
47%
51%
David Weprin 41%
43%
36%
44%
40%
Christopher Hoeppner
4%
9%
7%
2%
1%
Undecided
7%
7%
8%
7%
7%
Favorable 45%
41%
45%
45%
47%
Unfavorable 30%
39%
30%
31%
26%
Not sure 24%
20%
25%
24%
28%
Age Base
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Weprin Favorability
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Obam a Approval
Favorable 39%
54%
31%
38%
43%
Approve 31%
42%
27%
31%
29%
Unfavorable 36%
33%
39%
35%
37%
Disapprove 56%
42%
64%
55%
56%
Not sure 24%
13%
31%
27%
20%
Not sure 13%
16%
9%
14%
16%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Age Base
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Perry Favorability
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Rom ney Favorability
Favorable 26%
31%
27%
22%
31%
Favorable 33%
38%
27%
32%
38%
Unfavorable 35%
25%
33%
40%
35%
Unfavorable 33%
35%
35%
34%
30%
Not sure 39%
44%
41%
38%
34%
Not sure 34%
26%
38%
34%
33%
Age Base
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Obam a/Perry
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Obam a/Rom ney
Barack Obam a 44%
56%
38%
46%
42%
Barack Obam a 42%
55%
38%
42%
38%
Rick Perry 43%
35%
49%
39%
44%
MItt Rom ney 46%
39%
51%
43%
48%
Undecided 13%
9%
12%
15%
13%
Undecided 12%
6%
11%
14%
14%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Age
Age Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Obam a Israel Approval
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Weiner Favorability
Approve 30%
36%
28%
34%
24%
Disapprove 54%
48%
61%
50%
57%
Not sure 16%
15%
11%
17%
19%
Favorable 29%
30%
28%
28%
31%
Unfavorable 53%
48%
53%
55%
52%
Not sure 18%
21%
19%
17%
17%
Age Base
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Im portance of Israel on Vote
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Sam e-Sex Legal/Illegal
Very im portant 37%
36%
37%
35%
40%
Legal 41%
50%
43%
40%
34%
Som ew hat 32% im portant
33%
29%
32%
33%
Illegal 45%
38%
47%
44%
48%
Not sure 14%
13%
10%
15%
18%
Not all that im portant 29%
24%
31%
31%
25%
6%
3%
2%
2%
Not sure
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3%
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Age
Age Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Im portance of Sam eSex Marriage on Vote
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Cong. GOP Approval
Very im portant 29%
47%
29%
24%
27%
Som ew hat 26% im portant
20%
35%
25%
22%
Not all that im portant 44%
33%
36%
49%
48%
-
-
2%
2%
Not sure
1%
Approve 31%
41%
32%
26%
31%
Disapprove 50%
41%
51%
54%
48%
Not sure 19%
17%
17%
20%
21%
Age Base
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
More Faith in Obam a or Cong. GOP?
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Want Dem s or GOP to Control House?
Barack Obam a 42%
44%
40%
45%
37%
Dem ocrats 44%
41%
41%
49%
42%
Congressional 44% Republicans
44%
48%
40%
46%
Republicans 45%
48%
51%
40%
44%
Not sure 11%
11%
8%
11%
14%
Not sure 14%
11%
12%
14%
17%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Age Base
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Cuom o Approval
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Bloom berg Approval
Approve 59%
59%
47%
62%
66%
Approve 44%
44%
42%
45%
45%
Disapprove 16%
19%
25%
13%
11%
Disapprove 43%
48%
49%
40%
37%
Not sure 25%
22%
28%
25%
23%
Not sure 13%
7%
9%
15%
18%
Age Base
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Gillibrand Approval
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Schum er Approval
Approve 35%
37%
27%
41%
36%
Approve 51%
58%
42%
55%
52%
Disapprove 28%
22%
32%
26%
28%
Disapprove 35%
23%
41%
33%
38%
Not sure 37%
41%
41%
33%
36%
Not sure 14%
19%
18%
12%
10%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Religion
Religion
Som e other type Another No religion Don't care of Christian religion at all to say Base Jew ish Catholic Turner/Weprin/Hoeppner
Base Jew ish Catholic
Som e other type Another No religion Don't care of Christian religion at all to say
Turner Favorability
Bob Turner 47%
56%
54%
34%
27%
23%
51%
David Weprin 41%
39%
36%
47%
53%
55%
31%
Christopher Hoeppner
4%
2%
3%
4%
11%
9%
7%
Undecided
7%
4%
7%
15%
9%
13%
10%
Favorable 45%
49%
56%
30%
29%
22%
44%
Unfavorable 30%
30%
27%
33%
30%
44%
30%
Not sure 24%
21%
18%
36%
40%
34%
26%
Religion
Religion
Som e other type Another No religion Don't care Base Jew ish Catholic of Christian religion at all to say Weprin Favorability
Base Jew ish Catholic
Som e other type Another No religion Don't care of Christian religion at all to say
Obam a Approval
Favorable 39%
40%
33%
43%
48%
49%
24%
Approve 31%
26%
27%
48%
40%
41%
30%
Unfavorable 36%
36%
44%
30%
25%
25%
50%
Disapprove 56%
62%
60%
41%
39%
46%
51%
Not sure 24%
24%
23%
26%
27%
26%
26%
Not sure 13%
12%
13%
11%
21%
13%
19%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Religion
Religion
Som e other type Another No religion Don't care Base Jew ish Catholic of Christian religion at all to say Perry Favorability
Base Jew ish Catholic
Som e other type Another No religion Don't care of Christian religion at all to say
Rom ney Favorability
Favorable 26%
31%
29%
22%
13%
11%
48%
Favorable 33%
38%
37%
27%
24%
11%
30%
Unfavorable 35%
39%
28%
32%
30%
51%
17%
Unfavorable 33%
35%
26%
33%
26%
58%
23%
Not sure 39%
30%
43%
46%
56%
38%
36%
Not sure 34%
27%
37%
40%
49%
31%
47%
Religion
Religion
Som e other type Another No religion Don't care Base Jew ish Catholic of Christian religion at all to say Obam a/Perry
Base Jew ish Catholic
Som e other type Another No religion Don't care of Christian religion at all to say
Obam a/Rom ney
Barack Obam a 44%
43%
36%
48%
59%
59%
37%
Barack Obam a 42%
38%
33%
49%
58%
64%
37%
Rick Perry 43%
47%
48%
35%
26%
25%
49%
MItt Rom ney 46%
52%
54%
34%
31%
20%
56%
Undecided 13%
10%
16%
18%
15%
16%
14%
Undecided 12%
10%
13%
18%
10%
16%
7%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Religion
Religion
Som e other type Another No religion Don't care Base Jew ish Catholic of Christian religion at all to say Obam a Israel Approval
Base Jew ish Catholic
Som e other type Another No religion Don't care of Christian religion at all to say
Weiner Favorability
Approve 30%
22%
31%
39%
29%
53%
23%
Disapprove 54%
68%
52%
38%
42%
30%
70%
Not sure 16%
10%
17%
22%
29%
16%
7%
Favorable 29%
35%
21%
27%
31%
34%
23%
Unfavorable 53%
50%
65%
48%
47%
41%
32%
Not sure 18%
16%
14%
25%
22%
25%
45%
Religion
Religion
Som e other type Another No religion Don't care Base Jew ish Catholic of Christian religion at all to say Im portance of Israel on Vote
Base Jew ish Catholic
Som e other type Another No religion Don't care of Christian religion at all to say
Sam e-Sex Legal/Illegal
Very im portant 37%
58%
23%
25%
23%
17%
44%
Legal 41%
45%
31%
33%
45%
64%
15%
Som ew hat 32% im portant
30%
38%
25%
35%
23%
15%
Illegal 45%
43%
55%
48%
38%
19%
44%
Not sure 14%
12%
14%
19%
17%
16%
41%
Not all that im portant 29%
11%
36%
46%
36%
56%
26%
1%
3%
4%
6%
4%
15%
Not sure
3%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Religion
Religion
Som e other type Another No religion Don't care of Christian religion at all to say Base Jew ish Catholic Im portance of Sam eSex Marriage on Vote
Som e other type Another No religion Don't care of Christian religion at all to say
Cong. GOP Approval
Very im portant 29%
32%
29%
29%
24%
18%
26%
Som ew hat 26% im portant
24%
30%
22%
18%
39%
26%
Not all that im portant 44%
43%
40%
46%
55%
44%
48%
1%
1%
3%
3%
-
-
Not sure
Base Jew ish Catholic
1%
Approve 31%
39%
31%
27%
10%
20%
26%
Disapprove 50%
44%
48%
53%
60%
69%
56%
Not sure 19%
17%
21%
20%
30%
12%
18%
Religion
Religion
Som e other type Another No religion Don't care Base Jew ish Catholic of Christian religion at all to say More Faith in Obam a or Cong. GOP?
Base Jew ish Catholic
Som e other type Another No religion Don't care of Christian religion at all to say
Want Dem s or GOP to Control House?
Barack Obam a 42%
39%
35%
49%
53%
61%
33%
Dem ocrats 44%
42%
37%
60%
51%
59%
33%
Congressional 44% Republicans
51%
50%
33%
29%
23%
59%
Republicans 45%
50%
51%
33%
29%
29%
59%
Not sure 11%
8%
12%
7%
20%
12%
8%
Not sure 14%
11%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
15%
18%
19%
16%
8%
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Religion
Religion
Som e other type Another No religion Don't care Base Jew ish Catholic of Christian religion at all to say Cuom o Approval
Base Jew ish Catholic
Som e other type Another No religion Don't care of Christian religion at all to say
Bloom berg Approval
Approve 59%
61%
55%
54%
60%
67%
48%
Approve 44%
49%
38%
46%
33%
53%
44%
Disapprove 16%
16%
17%
19%
10%
15%
8%
Disapprove 43%
42%
46%
40%
44%
37%
39%
Not sure 25%
22%
27%
27%
29%
17%
44%
Not sure 13%
10%
15%
15%
23%
10%
16%
Religion
Religion
Som e other type Another No religion Don't care Base Jew ish Catholic of Christian religion at all to say Gillibrand Approval
Base Jew ish Catholic
Som e other type Another No religion Don't care of Christian religion at all to say
Schum er Approval
Approve 35%
40%
31%
33%
29%
42%
16%
Approve 51%
50%
46%
46%
61%
66%
Disapprove 28%
27%
31%
23%
24%
27%
31%
Disapprove 35%
39%
40%
30%
23%
21%
-
Not sure 37%
33%
38%
44%
46%
31%
52%
Not sure 14%
11%
14%
24%
16%
13%
30%
September 8-11, 2011 survey of 664 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
70%